BCS National Title Game '11

BCS National Title Game '11
BCS National Championship 1/10/11 Oregon vs Auburn

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

College Football Week 12 Recap

My overall Record: 86-34
My Record in Week 12: 7-3

Best game from Week 12: #13 Stanford 17, #2 Oregon 14 (OT)

ESPN College GameDay- Oregon vs Stanford
Just when everything looked to be falling into place, number one and number two both go down in huge upsets. Number one and number two have not gone down in the same week since Missouri and West Virginia both fell in the final weekend of the 2007 regular season. The Kansas State Wildcats were completely dominated by a Baylor Bear team that had been offensively sound this season, but terrible   defensively. The Wildcat defense had played great defensively this season, but the Bears picked them apart and put up an impressive 52 points and 580 total yards. The most yards Kansas State had given up this year was 504 in a 44-30 victory at home against Oklahoma State on November 3rd. Collin Klein and the offense were only able to rack up 362 total yards on a defense that prior to this game gave up an average of 533.4 yards per game. Klein had three total touchdowns, but managed to throw three interceptions. Klein's Heisman chances are now in jeopardy after this weekend's loss. Klein must look impressive in two weeks at home against a surging Texas Longhorn team. The Kansas State Wildcats must beat #16 Texas to win the Big 12 crown. The Wildcats can afford to lose against Texas only if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and TCU beats Texas this week.

Pre-game- Oregon vs Stanford 
The Oregon Ducks were the second victim to fall this past Saturday. The 13th-ranked Stanford Cardinal came into a hostile Autzen Stadium and upset the Ducks in overtime 17-14. The Cardinal defense shutdown the Oregon rushing attack the whole game and held them to an impressive 198 yards. It was the second straight week the Ducks did not rush for over 200 yards and that Heisman contender Kenjon Barner did not rush for at least 70 yards or  score a touchdown. This is also the lowest amount of points the Ducks have scored since Chip Kelly's head coaching debut against Boise State when they lost 19-8. The Cardinal offense had three turnovers, but the Ducks were not able to capitalize. The Duck offense looked almost out of sync and made a few key mistakes. A key mistake was in the first quarter when quarterback Marcus Mariota appeared to be running for a 92 yard touchdown, but De'Anthony Thomas ran past a block he could have made and Mariota was knocked out at the 15-yard line. The Ducks eventually failed to convert on a fourth down and were not able to get any points out of the drive. There were many missed opportunities to score, but the more notable problem was the kicking game. This is not just a one time thing for Oregon. The Ducks currently are ranked 122nd in the nation in field goal percentage. Yes, the Ducks mainly score touchdowns, but the kicking game has to improve. Junior kicker Alejandro Maldonado has not been able to convert when the game has been on the line. Maldonado missed a game tying field goal to go into overtime against USC last season. He did in fact make a key 30-yard field goal against Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl last season to put the Ducks up seven with minutes remaining, but the nightmare from last November happened again Saturday night. He missed two key field goals that could have kept the Ducks in the game or won them the game. If there was one thing you couldn't blame the loss on it was the Oregon defense. A defense that had been completely wiped out a week before by injuries put on a gutsy performance and kept the Ducks in the game. Stanford was able to get Oregon to play their game. New starting quarterback Kevin Hogan played solid along with senior star running back Stepfan Taylor, who rushed for 161 yards. Stanford now plays at UCLA this Saturday to clinch the Pac-12 North Division. If Stanford were to win this game they would host the Pac-12 Championship game and play UCLA for the second time in six days.

Other notable games included from this past weekend were UCLA defeating USC 38-28 to win the Pac-12 South Division. The Trojans lost senior quarterback Matt Barkley with just minutes remaining to a separated shoulder, after he was hit by UCLA linebacker Anthony Barr. Barkley is now out for the final regular season game against rival #1 Notre Dame. The Oklahoma Sooners had to win on a last minute five-yard touchdown pass from Landry Jones to Kenny Stills on the road against West Virginia. Lastly, the undefeated Ohio State Buckeyes had trouble on the road at Wisconsin. The Badgers scored a game-tying touchdown with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter to knot things up at 14. The Buckeyes scored a touchdown on their first possession in overtime and the Buckeye defense was able to hold the Badgers out of the end zone to escape with a 21-14 victory.

Conference Scenarios: 

ACC:  Conference Championship game: Florida State vs Georgia Tech

- Miami (FL) self-imposed a postseason bowl ban on themselves, meaning they cannot play for a conference championship.  

Big East:  Rutgers or Louisville

- If Louisville loses at home against UConn this weekend, Rutgers will be the Big East Champion.

- If Louisville wins at home against UConn this weekend, Louisville will travel to Rutgers next weekend to decide the Big East. 

Big 12:  Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas, and Oklahoma State 

- If Kansas State defeats Texas at home in two weeks, the Wildcats will win the Big 12 Conference and at least clinch a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. 

- If Oklahoma defeats Oklahoma State at home this weekend, and Kansas State loses to Texas next weekend, the Sooners would win the Big 12 Conference and clinch a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. 

- If Texas wins at home against TCU on Thursday, and at Kansas State the following weekend, they could have a chance to win depending on if they are ranked ahead of Kansas State and Oklahoma in the BCS standings. Kansas State and Oklahoma would, of course, need to lose their final games of the season. 

- If Oklahoma State wins at Oklahoma this weekend they have a chance to tie for the Big 12 title. They would need Texas to win at Kansas State in two weeks. The chances of Oklahoma State receiving a BCS bid are still very slim even with this whole scenario.

*note: In 2008, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech all finished in a three-way tie with Oklahoma advancing to the Big 12 Championship because they were ranked the highest in the BCS Standings. 

Big Ten:  Big Ten Championship game: Wisconsin vs (Nebraska or Michigan)

- If Nebraska wins at Iowa Friday, they would win the Big Ten Legends Division. The Huskers win in a tiebreaker over Michigan, because they defeated the Wolverines at home on October 27th 23-9. 

- If Michigan wins at Ohio State and Nebraska loses at Iowa, the Wolverines would be the champions of the Big Ten Legends Division. 

Pac-12:  Pac-12 Championship: UCLA @ (Stanford or Oregon)

- If Stanford wins at UCLA this upcoming weekend, Stanford will host UCLA the following Friday for the Pac-12 Championship and a potential trip to the Rose Bowl. 

- If Oregon wins at Oregon State and Stanford loses at UCLA, the Ducks will host the Bruins the following Friday for the Pac-12 Championship and a potential trip to the Rose Bowl. 

SEC:  SEC Championship game: Georgia vs (Alabama, LSU, or Texas A&M)

- If Alabama were to lose at Auburn this weekend, the LSU Tigers would most likely get the nod to play in the SEC Championship game. LSU would need to win at Arkansas this weekend. The Tigers would get the nod over Texas A&M, because of their 24-19 victory at Texas A&M on October 20th. If Alabama and LSU both lose, Texas A&M would find themselves in the SEC Championship game with a win over Missouri this upcoming weekend. 

BCS Scenarios: Who can end up in the BCS National Championship Game? 

Current BCS Standings
1. Notre Dame  .9973
2. Alabama       .9333
3. Georgia         .8763
4. Florida           .8434
5. Oregon          .8318
6. Kansas State  .7692
7. LSU               .7308

1. Notre Dame 

- If Notre Dame wins at USC this Saturday, the Fighting Irish will clinch a spot in the BCS National Championship game. 

- If Notre Dame loses they will receive an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl game. 

2. Alabama 

- If Alabama wins at Auburn this weekend and against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, the Crimson Tide would play in their second consecutive BCS National title game. 

- If Alabama wins at Auburn this weekend and loses against Georgia in the SEC Championship game, the Crimson Tide would be looking to get a BCS at-large bid. They would most likely find themselves in the Sugar Bowl. 

-If Alabama loses to Auburn they would lose their chance of playing in the SEC Championship game and most likely miss out on a BCS at-large game. 

3. Georgia 

- If Georgia wins at home against Georgia Tech and wins the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs would play for the BCS National title game.

- If Georgia wins at home against Georgia Tech and loses in the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs would have to hope that Florida, LSU, and Texas A&M would all lose to receive a BCS at-large bid. 

- If Georgia loses at home against Georgia Tech and then win the SEC Championship game, the Bulldogs would clinch a spot in the Sugar Bowl.  

4. Florida 

- Florida Gators need to win at in-state rival Florida State this weekend to stay in the race. The Gators desperately need Notre Dame to lose at USC on Saturday night. If Notre Dame loses, the Gators would play for the BCS Championship game against the winner of the SEC Championship game. Hmmm...sounds a lot like last year's scenario. 

- Florida could also have Georgia lose to Georgia Tech and Alabama lose to Auburn to make the BCS National Championship game. This is obviously very unlikely to happen. 

5. Oregon 

- The Oregon Ducks need a lot to happen to get back into the BCS Championship picture. First, the Ducks have to win at Oregon State this Saturday. Then they need Notre Dame to fall at USC and Florida to lose at Florida State this Saturday. The computers have not liked Oregon this season. If the Ducks do not get a chance to play for the Pac-12 title, it could cause them to be leaped at the number two spot. The Ducks need Stanford to lose at UCLA, so they can host the Bruins next Friday for the Pac-12 Championship. 

6. Kansas State 

- The Kansas State Wildcats are in even more trouble after falling to a 4-5 Baylor team. The Wildcats need all the same things as Oregon does, except they need the Ducks to lose at Oregon State this Saturday. The Wildcats do play Texas on the final weekend, and desperately need to win to guarantee themselves a spot in the Fiesta Bowl.

7. LSU

- LSU needs almost a miracle to happen for them to have a chance at making the BCS Championship. I'm just going to make this as simple as possible. The Tigers need Alabama to lose to Auburn this Saturday, so they can have a chance to play in the SEC Championship game. The Tigers would have to then beat Georgia and hope Florida, Oregon, and Kansas State would all go down. 

Current BCS Bowl Projections:

BCS National Title (Miami,FL)

#1 Notre Dame vs #2 Alabama 

Fiesta Bowl (Glendale, AZ)

#5 Oregon vs #6 Kansas State 

Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)

#8 Stanford vs #14 Nebraska 

Sugar Bowl (New Orleans, LA)

#4 Florida vs #13 Oklahoma 

Orange Bowl (Miami, FL)

#10 Florida State vs #18 Rutgers 

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